I was curious so I did some digging to look up some data to the best of my ability. There've been complaints about a "dry" launch for the Switch, and that that would doom the system, but... well, that doesn't really guarantee anything. Have a look at the games available at launch date for three highly successful systems:
NES - Super Mario Bros., Duck Hunt
SNES - Super Mario World, F-Zero
Game Boy - Tetris
I had some difficulty tracking down release dates for these systems but as far as I can tell, these are the only games that released at the same time as the system. The NES is hailed as saving home console gaming, the Game Boy revolutionized portable gaming, and the SNES is lauded as one of the greatest consoles of all time. But look at that pitiful launch selection.
The N64, which did decently, also had a very limited launch, giving us only Super Mario 64 and Pilotwings 64. The DS, which is Nintendo's most successful line ever, only had Feel the Magic: XY/XX (that game sure existed), Spider-Man 2, Asphalt Urban GT, and its own version of Super Mario 64 DS.
Conversely, a smaller launch doesn't mean success either, because at the time of Gamecube's release, the only games available were Luigi's Mansion, Star Wars Rogue Squadron II: Rogue Leader, Crazy Taxi, and Super Monkey Ball. Super Smash Bros. Melee was available only a couple of weeks later! And yet, Gamecube wasn't much of a success.
At the same time... Shall we took at the number of games Wii U launched with?
Assassin's Creed III, Batman: Arkham City Armored Edition, Ben 10: Omniverse, Call of Duty: Black Ops II, Chasing Aurora, Darksiders II, Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Two, ESPN Sports Connection, FIFA Soccer 13, Game Party Champions, Just Dance 4, Little Inferno, Mass Effect 3: Special Edition, Mighty Switch Force! Hyper Drive Edition, Nano Assault Neo, New Super Mario Bros. U, Ninja Gaiden 3: Razor's Edge, Nintendo Land, Rabbids Land, Scribblenauts Unlimited, Sing Party, Skylanders: Giants, Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed, Tank! Tank! Tank!, Tekken Tag Tournament 2, Transformers: Prime – The Game, Trine 2: Director's Cut, Warriors Orochi 3: Hyper, Wipeout: The Game 3, Your Shape: Fitness Evolved 2013, and ZombiU.
That's a lot! ... but Wii U is Nintendo's least-successful system ever barring the Virtual Boy. And a good number of these are just ports of games that have been out on other systems for some time already.
But that also doesn't mean big launches won't be successful. Take a look at the size of these systems' launches:
Game Boy Advance - Castlevania: Circle of the Moon, Super Mario Advance, ChuChu Rocket!, Earthworm Jim, F-Zero: Maximum Velocity, Konami Krazy Racers, Rayman Advance
Wii - Avatar: The Last Airbender, Barnyard, Call of Duty 3, Excite Truck, Marvel: Ultimate Alliance, Rampage: World Destruction, Red Steel, Rayman Raving Rabbids, Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess, Trauma Center: Second Opinion, Wii Sports
3DS - Asphalt 3D, Bust-A-Move Universe, Combat of Giants: Dinosaurs 3D, Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars, Madden NFL Football, Nintendogs + Cats, Pilotwings Resort, Pro Evolution Soccer 2011, Rayman 3D, Ridge Racer 3D, Samurai Warriors: Chronicles, The Sims 3, Steel Diver, Super Monkey Ball 3D, Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition, Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Shadow Wars
While the GBA launch was fairly sizable, the Wii and 3DS launches were quite large (even if, again, some of the titles were just ports of existing games), and all three systems went on to be incredibly successful.
The secret to a successful console isn't its launch, it's having games people want to play. For the handheld generations, Pokemon alone is a massive seller. Hell, 3DS wasn't a very successful system at first either until it was revitalized and injected with a big lineup of games people wanted to play. Sure, the gimmicks of each system might have partially contributed to a success, but at the end of the day, people want games. And when it comes to Gamecube and Wii U... well, there just weren't a lot of games on those systems the masses wanted to play. More egregiously with the Wii U; the Gamecube library is actually quite solid! It's just that a lot of those games you can get on the other systems as well.
Basically, we shouldn't be looking at the Switch's launch to determine its success, but its library, and to be honest, the first year is looking strong. Sure, they need to maintain that momentum in the following years, but a good first year is definitely going to go a long way towards getting people to adopt early. Let's just see if they can grab that momentum and then stay the course. And even if not... remember that 3DS was slow to start as well.